Melbourne Cup Form Guide with Tips 2014

The Group 1 Melbourne Cup 2014 will be held tomorrow and after much deliberation over from many tipsters statistics throughout the year here are the best Emirates Melbourne Cup Form Guide and Tips for the 2014 race.

Below are the tips and information on the 24 Melbourne Cup 2014 horses that will compete over the 3200m race at 3pm tomorrow at Flemington Racecourse in Victoria.

Out of the 24 horses, there are 11 internationally-trained competitors that have traveled to Victoria, Australia in the hope of taking the Melbourne Cup 2014 title and the $3.6 Million first prize.

Here is the Melbourne Cup Form Guide with Tips 2014:

1. Admire Rakti (Japanese trained, Japanese bred)

Weight: 58.5kg – Barrier: 8 – Trainer: Tomoyuki Umeda – Jockey: Zac Purton (Australian based in Hong Kong)
+ Japanese raider Admire Rakti is the favourite for the Melbourne Cup. He won the Caulfield Cup (2400m, Group 1, handicap) which, in recent times, has replaced the Mackinnon Stakes (2000m, Group 1, weight-for-age) as the best traditional lead-up for the Melbourne Cup. There he carried the top weight and produced an electric final 200m.
– Admire Rakti was penalised 0.5kg for his victory at Caulfield which means he is attempting to carry the biggest weight to Cup victory since Think Big went back-to-back for Bart Cummings in 1975.
Only Makybe Diva in 2005 has carried top-weight to victory since Rising Fast did so in 1954. Both those horses would be ranked in most racing pundits’ top 15 racehorses to have ever raced in Australia.
Tip: It will be hard to beat!

2. Cavalryman (English trained, British bred)

Weight: 57kg – Barrier: 3 – Trainer: Saeed Bin Suroor for Godolphin – Jockey: Craig Williams (Australian based in Melbourne)
+ Cavalryman finished 12th in the 2012 Melbourne Cup when sent off at odds of $31
He returns two years later on the back of a 2014 season that has seen him win his last two races, both at Group 2 level in England against some top stayers. That’s the reason he’s asked to carry three kilos more than he did in 2012 and Cavalryman will have no issue running 3200m.
– He struggled to sprint that day when the race was run so slow that it suited those close to the lead. If the pace is slow again, he will struggle to overpower his rivals in the straight.
Tip: Worth an outside Bet

3. Fawkner (Australian trained, Australian bred)

Weight: 57kg – Barrier: 9 – Trainer: Robert Hickmott for Team Williams – Jockey: Nick Hall (Australian based in Melbourne)
+ The 2013 Caulfield Cup winner is back better than ever. He kicked off with an impressive second in the Makybe Diva (1600m, Group 1, weight-for-age) at this track before winning the Caulfield Stakes (2000m, Group 1, weight-for-age) and beating all bar Adelaide in the Cox Plate (2040m, Group 1, weight-for-age).
His Cup trial in the Cox Plate was equal to Fiorente’s last year and Gai’s horse went on to win this race.
– 3200m. Fawkner was outstanding in last year’s Cup but he was ridden at the tail of the field to help him finish the race off strongly. To make amends in 2014, he’ll need to be ridden more positively by Nick Hall and that is going to test his stamina.
Tip: Will more than likely finish in the top 3

4. Red Cadeaux (English trained, British bred)

Weight: 57kg – Barrier: 15 – Trainer: Ed Dunlop – Jockey: Gerald Mosse (Frenchman based in Hong Kong)
+ Second-place finishes in the 2011 (53.5kg) and 2013 (56.5kg) Cups sandwich a fantastic eighth when the race wasn’t run to suit in 2012 (55.5kg). He is a modern-day Shadow King, who raced in the Cup six times for two seconds, two thirds, a fourth and sixth in Phar Lap’s era.
– Truth be told, Red Cadeaux, as honest as he is, doesn’t win very often. 30 times he’s fronted the starter in Listed races or better and he’s come away with victory only four times. He’s only won twice in the last three years.
Tip: May be good for a place bet

5. Protectionist (German trained, German bred)

Weight: 56.5kg – Barrier: 11 – Trainer: Andreas Wohler – Jockey: Ryan Moore (Englishman based in England)
+ The lightly-raced Protectionist has the profile of an internationally-trained Melbourne Cup winner. He is having only the tenth start of his career on Tuesday and it comes at the end of a season that has seen him rise from Listed level in Germany to a victory in the Kergolay (3000m, Group 2) in France.
– No German-trained horse has won the racebefore, and it may not be used to the Australian style of racing
Digging deeper, I think the biggest thing against Protectionist is the Australian style of racing. He encountered trouble in the form of traffic congestion at a key moment of the Herbert Power. He needs to avoid such traffic in the Cup.
Tip: Had one of the strongest chances of winning

6. Sea Moon (Australian trained, British bred) – SCRATCHED

Weight: 56.5kg – Barrier: 18 – Trainer: Robert Hickmott for Team Williams – Jockey: Tommy Berry

7. Seismos (English trained, Irish bred)

Weight: 56kg – Barrier: 1 – Trainer: Marco Botti – Jockey: Craig Newitt (Australian based in Melbourne)
+ German Group 1 winner by four lengths in August last year. He won the Freer by beating Willing Foe and Red Cadeaux at level weights in August and meets Red Cadeaux 1kg better here.
– But Willing Foe enjoys a 1kg pull in the weights on Seismos after the Freer. And Seismos was very average when running 15th in the Caulfield Cup. He has failed to finish closer than sixth in three attempts at 3200m.
Tip: Has it in him to win, but unlikely to take this title with the other outstanding competitors

8. Junoob (Australian trained, British bred)

Weight: 55.5kg – Barrier: 7 – Trainer: Chris Waller – Jockey: Hugh Bowman (Australian based in Sydney)
+ He won the Hill (2000m, Group 2) in September at weight-for-age and The Metropolitan at Randwick (2400m, Group 1, handicap) on route to a good seventh in the Caulfield Cup when he raced wide for the entire journey.
He has never been tested at the distance but he races like it will suit.
– Has a 1.5kg penalty for winning The Metrop
Tip: Top eight chance but there is too much good competition for him to win

9. Royal Diamond (Irish trained, Irish bred)

Weight: 55.5kg – Barrier: 6 – Trainer: Johnny Murtagh – Jockey: Steven Arnold (Australian based in Melbourne)
Odds: 67
+ Eight-year-old gelding who was a multiple Group 3 winner in Europe last year, and will have no issue finishing off the two miles strongly. He did win the Irish St Leger (2816m, Group 1) in 2012 as a $17 chance. Two miles is what he wants.
– His last race he camee sixth in the Irish St Leger and beaten by almost 13 lengths. That is a race that can produce a top three finisher in the Melbourne Cup but always off a better performance than that.
Tip: Will more than likely come in the bottom 12

10. Gatewood (English trained, British bred)

Weight: 55kg – Barrier: 22 – Trainer: John Gosdon – Jockey: William Buick (Englishman, with Danish dual-citizenship, based in England)
+ Gatewood has run well in Europe this year, winning a Listed and Group 3 as well as completing his Cup preparation with a Group 2 second in France. He returns to Melbourne with a much stronger CV.
– Used to running at a group 3 level
Tip: may make it around the bottom top ten

11. Mutual Regard (Irish trained, Irish bred)

Weight: 55kg – Barrier: 12 – Trainer: Johnny Murtagh – Jockey: Damien Oliver (Australian based in Melbourne)
+ Stayed stonr in the Group 1 Ebor and is great stayer
– The Ebor is one of the great handicaps of the English turf but had not had a serious Melbourne Cup preparation.
Tip: unlikely to make Top 12 because of lack of preparation

12. Who Shot Thebarman (Australian trained, New Zealand bred)

Weight: 55kg – Barrier: 13 – Trainer: Chris Waller – Jockey: Glen Boss (Australian based in Melbourne)
+ His 14th in the Caulfield Cup reads poorly on paper but things didn’t go his way. He was ridden forward which is against his pattern of racing and over-raced badly. In the home straight, he was buffeted from pillar to post. Forgiving the run would be wise.
He’s only had 15 starts and has won eight of them. He has upside in spades.
– May not be up to scratch, but is seeming to attract Bookmaker interest. watch the odds roll in.
Tip: A good roughie if you want to take a risk

13. Willing Foe (English trained, American bred)

Weight: 55kg – Barrier: 17 – Trainer: Saeed Bin Suroor for Godolphin – Jockey: James McDonald (New Zealander based in Sydney)
+ He won the Ebor in 2012, so he has run 3200m strongly which is good preparation for the Melbourne Cup 2014
– Fourth in the Irish St Leger, beaten eight lengths but finishing five ahead of Royal Diamond.
Tip: Will most likely be in the top eight

14. My Ambivalent (English trained, Irish bred)

Weight: 54.5kg – Barrier: 4 – Trainer: Roger Varian
Jockey: Andrea Atzeni (Italian based in England)
+ A Group 1 winner in Ireland last season over 2011m against her own sex. She has been given very wide odds, which is unusual due to her success overseas.
– Doesn’t have the experience in 3200m races
Tip: The Melbourne Cup isn’t her race, but if she can go the distance there could be a surprise result, worth a risk!

15. Precedence (Australian trained, New Zealand bred)

Weight: 54.5kg – Barrier: 20 – Trainers: Bart & James Cummings – Jockey: Michael Rodd (Australian based in Melbourne)
+ Precedence has run in three Cups and has run well, relative to expectation, each time – eighth in 2010 at $21, 11th in 2011 at $51 and ninth in 2012 at $101.
– Average form, but this horse never gives in (not in a good way)
Tip: I wouldn’t put a serious bet on this one, you could put a place bet for a bit of fun

16. Brambles (Australian trained, New Zealand bred)

Weight: 54kg – Barrier: 21 – Trainer: Peter Moody – Jockey: Luke Nolen (Australian based in Melbourne)
+ Had a great run in the Turnbull Stakes, and came in the top three and came fourth in the Caulfield Cup, that was won by the Melbourne Cup favourite. He has had a lot of practice in the lead up with the Mackinnon on Saturday
– Will be in barrier 21 and may not have the pace to get out and ahead as its not used to running the long distance
Tip: Top five chance to take a risk on

17. Mr O’Ceirin (Australian trained, New Zealand bred)

Weight: 54kg – Barrier: 19 – Trainer: Ciaron Maher – Jockey: Chad Schofield (Australian based in Melbourne)
+ Makes the most of what he’s got, but its just not good enough for the Melbourne Cup 2014 competition
– Just doesn’t have the Melbourne Cup Group 1 ability
Tip: Worth a place bet for a bit of fun

18. Au Revoir (French trained, Irish bred)

Weight: 53.5kg – Barrier: 23 – Trainer: Andre Favre – Jockey: Glyn Schofield (South African based in Sydney)
+ Hasn’t had the 3200m experience at Group 1 level, but is an up and comer so we may get a surprise result from this one
– Believed to be outgraded here
Tip: Best to bet on a more exerienced horse

19. Lidari (Australian trained, French bred)

Weight: 53.5kg – Barrier: 10 – Trainer: Peter Moody – Jockey: Ben Melham (Australian based in Melbourne)
+ He’s been racing in a great form this preparation. He was less than two lengths behind Foreteller and the eventual Mackinnon winner Happy Trails in the Underwood, then second to Lucia Valentina at this course in the Turnbull.
– Has not shown he has the staina for the 3200m race.
Tip: Will make the top 10, but it will be a shock if he makes the top three.

20. Opinion (Australian trained, Irish bred)

Weight: 53.5kg – Barrier: 14 – Trainer: Chris Waller – Jockey: Tye Angland (Australian based in Sydney)
+ He was expected to then win the Moonee Valley Cup by many punters but crawled in at sixth. He reletively made up for it in the Sydney Cup and 3200m isn’t too much of an ask for him.
If he repeats The Metropolitan performance, he could run into the top three.
– Could be a disappointment ilke the Mooney Valley Cup
Tip: His form is too all over the place to be a sure thing

21. Araldo (Australian trained, British bred)

Weight: 53kg – Barrier: 24 – Trainer: Michael Moroney – Jockey: Dwayne Dunn (Australian based in Melbourne)
+ After a ten month break he came back to run third in The Metropolitan before that great fifth at Caulfield.
He is a winner in Germany over 2800m so he may have the 3200m in him.
– May be out of his depth in the years Melbourne Cup field
Tip: A risky one if you are good at holding your breath

22. Lucia Valentina (Australian trained, New Zealand bred)

Weight: 53kg – Barrier: 2 – Trainer: Kris Lees – Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy (Australian based in Sydney)
+ This one has the bookmakers and newspapers going mad after her win at Randwick and blowing the cometition away in the Turnbull. She’s well weighted and loves the rain!
She’s flying. She’s well weighted. And, if it somehow manages to rain, she’ll swim like a duck.
– Will she be able to keep up the pace over the 3200m?
Tip: If you want to give her the benefit of a doubt with the distance factor then she’d in with a chance, if not then definitely worth a place bet.

23. Unchain My Heart (Australian trained, Australian bred)

Weight: 51.5kgs – Barrier: 5 – Trainer: David Hayes and Tom Dabernig – Jockey: Dean Yendall (Australian based in Melbourne)
+ She has won at Listed level over 3200m at Flemington and is a strong stayer. If the pace was frantic, she could run top ten on stamina alone
– past races indicate that she doesnt have it in her, would be lucky to get in top 12
Tip: Worth a place bet for a bit of fun (nothing else!)

24. Signoff (Australian trained, Irish bred)

Weight: 51kgs (will run with 51.5kg due to jockey) – Barrier: 16 – Trainer: Darren Weir – Jockey: Joao Moreira (Brazilian based in Hong Kong)
+ He beat Protectionist home in the Herbert Power and was strong through the line that day. Then he was good in the unsuitable 2000m David Jones Cup (Group 3, handicap) and with Joao Moreira riding Signoff is in with a great chance!
– Will be running on a back to back this week so hopefully he is well prepared and not tired
Tip: Could win the Melbourne Cup

These Tips have been aggregated from many different Australian Bookmaker websites, and independent tipsters. Gamble Responsibly!

Derek Peterson - Melbourne Cup Pundit and top racing tipster. Having picked the last four Melbourne Cup winners on the trot you'd expect Derek to be experienced enough to give a tip or two across the Melbourne Cup and the Spring Racing Carnival during this racing season.


No comments.

Leave a Reply